Washington, D.C., USA – NASA has confirmed the possibility that an asteroid named 2024 YR4 could strike the Earth in just seven years, with a 1 in 43 chance, equating to a 2.3% probability.
The asteroid, measuring between 40 to 100 metres wide and dubbed ‘the city destroyer,’ passed by Earth at a distance of 828,800 kilometres on Christmas Day 2024.
It is expected to return, getting uncomfortably close in December 2032.
Potential impact zones and risk assessment
According to NASA, ongoing observations of the asteroid’s orbit will improve the understanding of its ‘impact probability.’
David Rankin, an engineer with NASA’s Catalina Sky Survey Project, has mapped out a ‘risk corridor,’ highlighting that if 2024 YR4 were on a collision course with Earth, it could potentially land within a band of land ranging from northern South America across the Pacific Ocean to southern Asia, the Arabian Sea, and Africa. Countries such as India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Sudan, Nigeria, Venezuela, Colombia, and Ecuador could be in danger.
Monitoring and future projections
Yahoo has reported that NASA reassured that the damage would be ‘localised’ rather than resulting in a dinosaur-style extinction event.
However, they cautioned that “it is also possible its impact probability will continue to rise.” Should the asteroid collide with Earth in 2032, it would hit at an estimated speed of about 17 kilometres per second (approximately 38,000 miles per hour).
The space agency continues to keep a close eye on 2024 YR4 as an object of interest, but they advise that it’s not something to lose sleep over just yet.
