Fuel prices across Nigeria are set to increase following key developments in both global and local markets. These include:
- Dangote Refinery’s decision to stop selling fuel in naira.
- U.S. sanctions on Iran, affecting global oil supply.
- Rising crude oil prices, which directly impact import costs.
With these changes, fuel prices are projected to approach ₦900 per litre, forcing filling stations to adjust pump rates accordingly.
Why Fuel Prices Are Increasing
1. Rising Crude Oil Prices
The global benchmark for oil, Brent crude, has increased to $72.16 per barrel, up from $71.75 per barrel in just a day. This spike follows new U.S. sanctions on Iran, which have disrupted supply chains.
Iran, a major oil producer, supplies over three million barrels daily, and any restriction on its exports creates a ripple effect on global prices.
According to Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Price Futures Group, the market was waiting for a push, and these sanctions served as the catalyst for price hikes.
2. Dangote Refinery’s Shift to Dollar Sales
Another major factor is Dangote Refinery’s decision to halt fuel sales in naira.
Previously, the refinery sold petroleum products in naira while purchasing crude oil in U.S. dollars. However, the mismatch between income and expenses forced a temporary switch to dollar transactions.
In a statement, Dangote Group explained:
“Our naira sales have exceeded the value of naira-denominated crude we have received. As a result, we must adjust our sales currency to match our crude procurement currency.”
This move further exposes Nigeria’s fuel market to fluctuations in global oil prices, as local buyers will now need dollars to purchase from Dangote Refinery.
Depot Prices Already Rising
As oil prices increase, fuel depots in Nigeria have also adjusted their rates.
- Petrol loading prices rose from ₦852 per litre to ₦875 per litre in just one day.
- Major depots, including Matrix Warri, Zamson, Rainoil, Pinnacle Warri, and Sobaz, have already implemented these price adjustments.
This shift is significant, considering that Dangote Refinery had previously reduced fuel prices three times between January and March 2025.
However, with rising crude oil prices and the refinery’s switch to dollar-based sales, Nigeria’s fuel importers and marketers are now facing higher costs.
Analysts, including J.P. Morgan, predict that Brent crude will remain in the mid-to-high $70s per barrel, meaning fuel importation will stay expensive.
Without Dangote Refinery offering lower-priced fuel in naira, consumers may soon be paying ₦900 or more per litre at filling stations nationwide.
As fuel prices continue to fluctuate, Nigerians are bracing for the financial impact, while industry players watch for further government intervention or market adjustments.
