Though it’s usually expected that presidential candidates in Nigeria’s elections win states where the sitting governors belong to their parties, there may be some exceptions in 2023.
Due to at least two factors, the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, may not win in some states where the sitting governors are members of the ruling party.
Below are the states:
1. Cross River
2. Ebonyi
3. Imo
4. Kwara
5. Ogun
The internal crisis and the southeast factor
In 2019, President Muhammadu Buhari lost some states to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)’s candidate, Atiku Abubakar, due partly to an internal crisis.
Similarly, a couple of months ago, the national chairman of the APC, Adamu Abdullahi, attributed his party’s loss in the 2022 governorship election in Osun state to internal crises.
A few months to the general election, the APC is battling serious internal crises in at least three states where it’s currently ruling; Cross River, Kwara and Ogun states.
APC Crisis in Cross River State
The APC governorship primary in Cross Rivers state was deeply disputed, with Owan Enoh challenging the victory of Senator Bassey Edet Otu.
Though the court has affirmed Otu’s victory, the development has left the APC in the south-south state polarised.
Recently, an APC chieftain in the state, Sam Bassey, openly declared support for the governorship candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Sandy Onor.
Meanwhile, Cross River became an APC state through the defection of the governor, Ben Ayade, not electoral victory.
With the unfolding developments, Tinubu may not win Cross River in 2023.
Ogun State’s APC crisis
The situation is similar in Ogun state, where a serving senator and former governor, Ibikunle Amosun, is in a political war with his predecessor, Governor Dapo Abiodun.
Amosun is backing Tinubu’s presidential bid, but he has openly declared that he would work against Abiodun in 2023.
If care is not taken, the in-fighting may affect Tinubu’s chances in the presidential poll.
However, two factors will also work to Tinubu’s advantage in Ogun state: PDP’s internal crisis and ethnic politics.
It will be difficult for Atiku to benefit from the crisis in the Ogun APC because the PDP in Ogun state is also arguably in a bigger mess.
Regarding ethnic politics, the fact that Tinubu is a Yoruba man from the southwest also means he may win Ogun state, regardless of the crisis in the APC chapter.
Kwara state crisis: Lai Mohammed versus Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRasaq
In Kwara, the camp is divided into two: Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRasaq and Information minister Lai Mohammed.
If the crisis is not addressed before the poll, former Senate president Bukola Sarake may take advantage of the situation to ensure PDP hurt Tinubu’s chances in the north-central state.
Imo and Ebonyi states
The southeast zone is not a fan of the ruling APC. Since 1999, the Igbo-dominated region has traditionally voted for the PDP.
In 2023, they now have two options: PDP or Labour Party, which is fielding their son, Peter Obi, as its presidential candidate.
Thus, even though the governors of Imo and Ebonyi belong to the APC, Tinubu is very unlikely to defeat either Atiku or Peter Obi in the two southeastern states in the 2023 polls.
Tinubu’ll get 40% each in Imo and Ebonyi states, APC chieftain Obidike Chukwuebuka reacts
Reacting, Obidike Chukwuebuka, a member of the APC Presidential Campaign Council, Contact & Mobilization, did not dispute the projection that his party may not win Ebonyi and Imo states.
Obidike, however, expressed confidence that Tinubu will get 40% in each of the southeast states.
He noted that the PDP’s traditional dominance in the south-south and the southeast had been lost to Peter Obi’s emergence as the Labour Party presidential candidate.
“Obi playing a spoiler for PDP and Atiku is to the benefit of APC. For instance, a state like Ebonyi, being ruled by the APC, has local government chairmen of APC and Ward councillors of APC.
“All stakeholders in Ebonyi are majorly APC. Ebonyi used to be PDP before now, but the coming of Governor Dave Umahi and his developmental strides in Ebonyi is giving room for greater support for APC,” he told
Obidike also said he does not rule out the likelihood of APC winning all the majority votes in Ebonyi.
He said Governor Umahi, the senatorial candidate of the APC in Ebonyi South, “is moving with speed.”
“In Ebonyi South, there’s no PDP, there’s no Labour. Ebonyi South is purely APC. In Ebonyi North, the APC senatorial candidate is very strong. They’re going to pull a lot of votes for APC.
“Also, in the Federal House election, APC has an edge because we have very strong candidates and because of the internal crisis that rocked PDP primaries in Ebonyi. PDP doesn’t have any strong candidates and supporters in Ebonyi.
“The Labour party doesn’t have any influence in Ebonyi. Their strongest candidate in Ebonyi is being charged by a criminal court, so he doesn’t even have time to attend to his campaign. He’s already in detention for drug-related issues,” Obidike said.
