Scientists have officially confirmed a grim forecast long warned about by tech billionaire Elon Musk — that Earth’s days are numbered due to the inevitable expansion of the sun. New research now pinpoints a timeline for when life on our planet will no longer be sustainable.
A collaborative study by NASA and Japan’s Tōhō University has used sophisticated computer simulations to chart the sun’s future and its devastating impact on Earth. The results suggest that by the year 1,000,002,021, soaring temperatures and depleting oxygen will make human survival impossible.
The Sun’s Eventual Transformation Into a Red Giant
According to the study, the sun is still in the middle of its life cycle but is expected to dramatically expand in roughly five billion years. During this “red giant” phase, it will consume Mercury and Venus, with Earth possibly being engulfed as well. The predictions echo previous warnings by NASA about the sun’s gradual but inevitable transformation.
Mass Extinction Predicted by Advanced Simulations
The findings, published in Nature Geoscience, are based on over 400,000 simulations tracking the planet’s atmospheric and climate shifts over time. Scientists concluded that long before the sun physically swallows Earth, its increased brightness would destabilise the climate, resulting in plummeting oxygen levels.
The loss of oxygen would eventually wipe out most life forms, leaving behind only anaerobic microbes — organisms capable of living without oxygen. According to the projections, Earth’s atmosphere with breathable oxygen would persist for about 1.08 billion years, with a margin of ±0.14 billion years.
Elon Musk’s Vision for Mars as Humanity’s Backup
Elon Musk, who has repeatedly urged for Mars colonisation, renewed his warning on May 3 during a conversation with Fox’s Jesse Watters. He stated: “The sun is gradually expanding, and so we do at some point need to be a multi-planet civilization because Earth will be incinerated.”
He has consistently described Mars as vital “life insurance for life collectively,” highlighting the importance of establishing human settlements on other planets before it’s too late.
Space Policy Shifts and Trump’s Role
In a significant policy move under former President Donald Trump, NASA’s budget experienced a $6 billion cut on May 1, which impacted several Earth-based missions and operations at the International Space Station. Despite the backlash, this decision redirected funds towards manned space exploration, including efforts to eventually establish a sustainable human presence on Mars.
Musk has insisted that Mars must one day become self-reliant, explaining that humanity’s future security would be guaranteed only when life on the Red Planet could survive independently.
