President Bola Tinubu may end up as another one-term president in Nigeria since the return of democracy in the country in 1999. He may lose the 2027 presidential election as things appear to be turning against him.
Among the factors currently working against Tinubu are his economic policies and his northern alliance.
Tinubu’s economic policies
Things have fallen apart for many Nigerians since Tinubu announced the removal of the fuel subsidy on May 29, 2023, which was his inaugural day.
Tinubu also decided to float the country’s currency, which eventually tripled the exchange rate, causing many small businesses to struggle without a stable foundation
The cost of living is at an all-time high, and the president keeps expressing his confidence that things will improve.
Amid the country’s hardship, Tinubu’s administration announced the partial removal of the subsidy on electricity, which the opposition has condemned.
If the economic woes persist until the election period and Nigerians cannot find relief from their struggles, it could be a significant factor influencing them to vote against Tinubu in the poll.
Loss of Northern support
With the growing political tides in the north, Tinubu may not find favour with the region that produces the highest votes in Nigeria come 2027. Many leaders in the region have considered the president’s economic policies unfavourable.
Prof Usman Yusuf, a member of the Northern Elders Forum (NEF), recently lamented that President Tinubu’s economic policies have made many Nigerians hopeless, contrary to what he campaigned for.
Yusuf stated this while reacting to Tinubu’s performance in the last year in office.
The NEF also criticised Tinubu’s administration’s electricity tariff. The elders expressed their disappointment about the development, describing it as disregarding Nigeria’s well-being.
The Sultan of Sokoto, Alhaji Muhammad Sa’ad Abubakar lll, also lamented the country’s deteriorating socio-economic conditions. He said Nigeria is currently sitting on a keg of gunpowder.
Abubakar III expressed his displeasure with President Tinubu’s administration at the 6th executive committee meeting of the Northern Traditional Rulers Council at the Arewa House in Kaduna.
Possible alliance of opposition
There are indications that the opposition, led by Atiku Abubakar and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), may form an alliance to defeat President Tinubu in the 2027 presidential election, having realised that the division among them gave the president the upper hand in the 2023 election.
Atiku had recently called on Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso of the Labour Party and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) to join forces with him to defeat Tinubu.
His recent meeting with Obi in Abuja shows that the former vice president is keen on ensuring an alliance with other opposition ahead of the 2027 presidential election.
Possible loss of key political allies
There are indications that President Tinubu may lose some key political allies, including the immediate past president Muhammadu Buhari, which could affect his chances in the 2027 presidential election.
Other allies President Tinubu may lose are Nasir El-Rufai, Yahaya Bello, Kayode Fayemi, Ibikunle Amosun, and Femi Fani-Kayode. The four are former governors, while Fani-Kayode is a former minister.
